The World Bank has revised down its economic growth projection for Nigeria to an average of 4.1% in 2026, from the 4.4% forecast issued in October 2025.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender also lowered Nigeria’s growth outlook for 2027 to 4.2%, while projecting 4.3% growth for 2028.
The report noted that although macroeconomic conditions are gradually stabilising and investment is beginning to recover, structural challenges continue to limit faster economic expansion.
According to the bank, Nigeria’s growth will be largely driven by the services sector, particularly ICT, finance, and real estate, while agriculture and industry are expected to record slower gains.
Inflation is projected to decline significantly, dropping from 23% in 2025 to 14.9% in 2026, and further easing to 10.7% by 2028. This trend is attributed to the delayed effects of policy tightening and improved supply conditions.
However, the World Bank warned that poverty levels remain high and may only decline gradually, partly due to elevated fuel prices linked to ongoing global conflicts.
The report also highlighted key risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook, including commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, persistent security challenges, and fluctuations in capital flows. It added that policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 general elections could further impact economic stability.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025 but slightly lower than earlier estimates. Nigeria joins other major economies such as South Africa, Angola, and Kenya in recording downward revisions to growth forecasts.
Despite the adjustments, the World Bank noted that many countries in the region are experiencing improved macroeconomic stability, better inflation control, and stronger currencies, which are supporting consumption and investment.