Opta’s AI SuperComputer has estimated that an English club has just over a 38% chance of winning the UEFA Champions League this season.
Ahead of Friday’s Round of 16 draw, Opta simulated the tournament 10,000 times, with Liverpool emerging as the most likely winners at 20.2%.
Their Premier League rivals, Arsenal, are the second favorites with a 16.8% chance.
The Gunners have a 79% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, as Mikel Arteta’s men are set to face either PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord in the last 16.
Real Madrid have been given a 10.5% chance of adding to their record 15 titles, while Barcelona (12.7%) and Inter Milan (12.4%) are considered slightly stronger contenders.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa, who won the European Cup in 1982, have only a 1.2% chance of repeating that feat this season