Eurasia Group, a United States political risk consultancy
corporation, has offered a bleak outlook over the possible electoral
victory of Nigeria’s biggest presidential candidates, President
Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar.

With the 2019 presidential election just five
weeks away, one of Buhari and Atiku is expected to be elected Nigeria’s
president at the polls.

However, according to Eurasia’s recent report,
victory for either of the two might not best serve the country as they
both have limitations that might prove troublesome in the future.

The group described Buhari, 76, as
lacking energy to solve Nigeria’s problems while Atiku is likely to
enrich himself and associates if he becomes president.

The report read, “He (Buhari) is an
elderly, infirm leader who lacks the energy, creativity, or political
savvy to move the needle on Nigeria’s most intractable problems.

“His opponent is Atiku Abubakar, another
gerontocrat who would focus on enriching himself and his cronies,
avoiding the difficult and politically unpopular tasks necessary for
reform.”

Buhari’s victory poses risks of political crisis – Eurasia

 President Muhammadu Buhari is keen on remaining in the
Presidential Villa for another four years despite concerns about his
health [Tolani Alli]

The report further noted that a second term
victory for Buhari would bring Nigeria little progress “on critical
policy priorities like tax reform or a restructuring of the energy
sector”.

“Buhari would be a lame duck from
day one, with powerbrokers in his own party quickly shifting their
focus to the next electoral cycle in 2023,” the report read.

The group also expressed worry that a
repetition of Buhari’s mysterious health problems, like during his first
term, would worse the situation.

The report concluded, “A
Buhari reelection also carries tail risks. A politically weak
president, for health or other reasons, would open the floodgates for
political infighting, increasing the chances that his ruling All
Progressives Congress implodes.

“That would turn a policy slowdown into
paralysis. The risk of attacks on oil infrastructure would also rise,
because the absence of strong leadership in Abuja would make it harder
to negotiate with the Niger Delta’s various militant groups.”

Atiku’s policies are unclear and untested – Eurasia

Atiku Abubakar is eager to return to the Presidential Villa after serving as Vice President for eight years

Eurasia also poured cold water on the possible
victory of Atiku, a former vice president, noting that his policy
priorities are unclear and untested even though he’s credited with
keener intellect than Buhari.

The group noted that his victory would create a
brief, superficial boost to the country’s image, even at the risk of
Nigeria returning to “an even more rent-seeking governing style”. 

The report read, “Atiku’s policy
priorities are unclear and untested: He had previously promised to
deregulate the oil and gas sector but recently pledged to reduce
gasoline prices by 50% from already below-market levels. That would
swell subsidy costs and endanger long-term debt sustainability.

“He’s also unlikely to champion a tax
reform that’s critical to Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability. Atiku would
face significant infighting within his People’s Democratic Party as
well, as leaders try to hold him to his promise to serve only one term
(a pledge he’s likely to retract).”

Post-election crisis is possible – Eurasia

Eurasia also expressed worry over a possible
crisis that’ll trail the results of the election which it noted will be
close and might be challenged or inconclusive.

 The report read, “Then there’s a dangerous wildcard outcome. The election will be close, and a challenged or inconclusive result is possible.

“That, in turn, could trigger a political crisis in which neither candidate has a legitimate claim to power.

“If the vote is close enough to trigger a
runoff, Nigeria’s constitution requires the second round of voting to
occur within seven days of the first, a tough timeline to meet given the
complexity of organising national elections in the country.”

Other presidential candidates

A former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
Prof. Kingsley Moghalu, is one of the outsiders to contest for the
presidency in next month’s election

Even though the February 16, 2019 election is
expected to be keenly-contested between Atiku and Buhari, they face
competition from other candidates including Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP), Obiageli Ezekwesili of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), and Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC).

Others are Tope Fasua of the Abundance Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), Eunice Atuejide of the National Interest Party (NIP), Adesina Fagbenro-Byron of the Kowa Party (KP), Chike Ukaegbu of the Advanced Allied Party (AAP), Hamza Al-Mustapha of the People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN), Obadiah Mailafia of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and many more.

79 candidates will contest in the election, the highest number ever in Nigeria’s electoral history.