Successive administrations in Nigeria have consistently sought validation from Western powers. Past and present leaders appear deeply concerned about how they are perceived abroad, often copying foreign policies without adapting them to local realities—an attitude many view as a lingering colonial mindset.
Former President Muhammadu Buhari, for instance, was notably reluctant to engage local media during his first term, yet appeared more comfortable granting interviews to foreign outlets. Similarly, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s inability to visit the United States once became a political liability and was widely discussed as a setback to his presidential ambitions. Nigerian politicians have also repeatedly flocked to Chatham House in London to deliver long, often unsolicited speeches—despite the fact that, from experience, the audience rarely shows much interest.
Beyond image and validation, many politicians seek Western approval because that is where their looted wealth is allegedly stashed—and where they might seek refuge should Nigeria unravel. External influence, therefore, continues to play a significant role in Nigeria’s internal politics.
When President Donald Trump designated Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern, President Bola Tinubu reportedly realised the gravity of the situation. Trump adopted a hardline posture on Nigeria’s worsening security crisis, accusing Islamist terrorists of targeting Christians—an assertion that remains a matter of perspective and debate.
Known for its slow response to security challenges, the Nigerian government suddenly sprang into action. Tinubu projected an image of control. Police officers were reportedly withdrawn from VIP duties—at least on paper—while security chiefs were summoned for emergency meetings. Carefully curated photographs flooded the media. State-backed content creation followed, with the Nigerian Army’s social media platforms reviving narratives of success in the war against terrorism. Quiet diplomatic engagements with Washington also intensified, suggesting a clear desire to ease Trump’s pressure.
For a time, Trump’s threats appeared rhetorical—until Christmas Day, when the United States reportedly carried out a military strike in Sokoto State. Trump announced the action on social media in his trademark style and hinted at further action. Reactions within Nigeria were mixed, reflecting the country’s complex social fabric.
Soon after, Trump again shocked the global community, this time with dramatic actions in Venezuela. In an operation likened to a coup, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were reportedly arrested. Venezuela’s sovereignty appeared disregarded, international law questioned, and the United Nations rendered largely ineffective. Major global powers, including the UK, struggled to openly condemn the United States, while the UN issued what many considered a weak response. Trump, it seemed, was acting beyond restraint.
Trump’s interest in Venezuela is widely believed to be linked to oil. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves—303.3 billion barrels, according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy—surpassing even Saudi Arabia. Trump made little effort to conceal his intentions, openly stating that the United States would control both power and oil in the country. His justifications, including allegations of drug trafficking and failed leadership, remain contested.
Emboldened, Trump has warned that Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico could be next. Tinubu, watching from Abuja, may be increasingly uneasy. Nigeria, like Venezuela, is rich in crude oil, and its persistent insecurity could provide justification for external intervention.
Recent attacks on Christian communities in Adamawa State, banditry and abductions in Niger State, and ongoing terror in Borno State underscore the fragility of Nigeria’s security landscape. The Adamawa attacks, in particular, appeared to signal defiance—almost an invitation to international attention. Trump is likely observing closely.
Tinubu, critics argue, would be an easy target. Allegations of questionable dealings in the United States before his rise to power, as well as lingering questions about his educational history, continue to trail him. His unpopularity at home is such that some Nigerians openly joke about him receiving the “Maduro treatment.”
Trump may be closing in. Prominent Islamic cleric Ahmad Abubakar Gumi has claimed he has been marked for elimination by American interests, suggesting unease within powerful circles. There are even rumours that the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III, has gone into hiding.
Tinubu, the argument goes, must act decisively—and fast. He must stop providing Trump with the excuses he may be looking for.
Osahon Osayimwen writes from England.
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